Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) — a concept that refers to AI systems capable of performing a wide range of intellectual tasks at a level equal to or exceeding human intelligence — has been a subject of intense debate among scientists, AI researchers, and industry leaders. While AGI was once thought to be a distant goal, new predictions suggest it could arrive much sooner than previously anticipated.
A recent analysis of thousands of expert opinions, conducted by AIMultiple Research, has significantly altered the predicted timeline for AGI. Some researchers, including prominent AI figures like Dario Amodei, CEO of AI company Anthropic, believe AGI could be achieved as early as 2026. However, other experts remain skeptical, arguing that current AI architectures lack fundamental components necessary for true human-level intelligence.
Updated AGI Predictions: A Sooner-Than-Expected Arrival?
For years, predictions about the arrival of AGI have varied widely. In the past, some AI experts estimated that AGI might emerge between 2060 and 2080, while others doubted it would ever be possible. However, a recent large-scale analysis suggests a much earlier timeline.
Conducted on February 18, 2025, by AIMultiple Research analyst Cem Dilmegani, this study reviewed 8,600 predictions from scientists, AI researchers, and technology entrepreneurs spanning from 2009 to 2023. The data was further refined using a subset of 10 surveys, covering the opinions of 5,288 AI researchers and experts.
According to the averaged results, there is now a 50% probability that AGI will emerge between 2040 and 2061. This represents a significant acceleration of previous estimates, which had placed AGI’s arrival much further into the future.
More recent surveys show an even more dramatic shift in expectations. A 2023 study that surveyed 2,778 AI researchers suggested that AGI could be achieved by 2040 at the latest. Amodei and other AI pioneers have gone a step further, arguing that AGI might be just a year or two away, with some predicting its arrival as soon as 2026.
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The Role of Large Language Models in AGI Development
One of the driving forces behind this rapid acceleration in AGI predictions is the advancement of large language models (LLMs). Transformer-based architectures, such as OpenAI’s GPT-4 and Google DeepMind’s Gemini, have demonstrated unprecedented capabilities in language understanding, reasoning, and problem-solving.
These models form the backbone of chatbots like ChatGPT and AI image generators such as DALL-E, both of which have significantly advanced AI’s ability to generate human-like content.
Before these advancements, some experts had been skeptical about AI’s potential to reach general intelligence. As recently as 2019, predictions about AGI placed its arrival around 2060 or beyond. But as AI systems continue to improve exponentially, optimism about achieving AGI sooner has grown.
Why AGI is Considered a Matter of ‘When,’ Not ‘If’
The new analysis highlights several key reasons why scientists increasingly believe that AGI is an inevitability:
- Unbounded Computing Power: Unlike human intelligence, which is biologically constrained, AI intelligence is limited only by computational resources. Moore’s Law, which states that computing power doubles roughly every 18 months, suggests that AI will continue to advance rapidly.
- Advancements in Quantum Computing: Traditional computers process information sequentially, but quantum computing allows parallel processing using quantum mechanics. This breakthrough could significantly boost AI’s ability to perform complex computations, making AGI much more feasible.
- Exponential Growth in AI Research: AI models are improving at an unprecedented rate. The speed at which new breakthroughs are emerging suggests that we may reach AGI much sooner than previously expected.
However, not all scientists agree that these factors are enough to bring AGI into existence within the next decade.
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Skepticism About the Arrival of AGI
Despite the optimism of some AI experts, others argue that fundamental breakthroughs are still needed before we can achieve true artificial general intelligence.
Among the most vocal skeptics is Yann LeCun, Facebook’s Chief AI Scientist. In an October 2024 talk, LeCun criticized current AI models, particularly those based on transformer architectures, arguing that they are fundamentally incompatible with human-level intelligence.
According to LeCun, modern AI systems are highly specialized and lack the ability to generalize knowledge across different domains, a key requirement for AGI. He believes that true AGI would require:
- The ability to learn in real-world environments, rather than relying on pre-trained data
- A deep understanding of cause and effect, rather than pattern recognition alone
- An integrated cognitive model that allows reasoning beyond statistical probabilities
LeCun has also questioned the validity of AGI as a concept, arguing that no single human possesses universal knowledge. Instead, human intelligence is composed of a vast number of specialized abilities, and expecting AI to achieve full general intelligence may be an unrealistic goal.
Will AGI Bring Technological Singularity?
One of the most debated aspects of AGI is whether it will lead to the technological singularity, a hypothetical point at which AI surpasses human intelligence and becomes self-improving at an uncontrollable rate.
Proponents of AGI argue that once AI reaches human-level intelligence, it will quickly surpass human capabilities, leading to exponential technological growth. This could result in:
- Automated scientific discoveries beyond human comprehension
- Radical improvements in medicine, engineering, and problem-solving
- The potential obsolescence of human labor
However, skeptics warn that even if AGI is achieved, it may still be limited by computational and ethical constraints. Ensuring that AGI aligns with human values and remains under human control is a major concern among AI researchers.
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Conclusion: How Close Are We to AGI?
While some AI experts predict that AGI could arrive within the next few years, others maintain that significant breakthroughs are still required. The development of AGI will depend on advances in computing power, learning architectures, and cognitive modeling.
As AI systems continue to evolve, the debate over AGI’s timeline and implications will remain one of the most important discussions in technology today. Whether AGI arrives in 2026, 2040, or beyond, one thing is certain — the race toward artificial general intelligence is accelerating faster than ever.
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
1. What is artificial general intelligence (AGI)?
AGI refers to AI systems capable of performing any intellectual task at a human level or beyond, rather than being limited to specialized functions.
2. When do experts predict AGI will be achieved?
Estimates vary, but recent studies suggest AGI could emerge between 2026 and 2040, with some predictions extending to 2061.
3. Why do some scientists believe AGI is inevitable?
Factors such as unbounded computing power, advancements in AI models, and quantum computing contribute to the belief that AGI is a matter of “when,” not “if.”
4. What role do large language models (LLMs) play in AGI development?
LLMs like ChatGPT and DALL-E demonstrate significant progress in AI reasoning and communication, moving closer to AGI capabilities.
5. How does quantum computing impact AGI development?
Quantum computing allows AI to perform calculations much faster than classical computers, potentially accelerating the path to AGI.
6. What are the main arguments against AGI arriving soon?
Some experts argue that AI still lacks true reasoning, adaptability, and causal understanding, making AGI unlikely in the near future.
7. What is the technological singularity?
The singularity is a hypothetical point at which AI surpasses human intelligence and becomes self-improving beyond human control.
8. Who are some key figures in the AGI debate?
Prominent figures include Dario Amodei (optimistic about AGI by 2026) and Yann LeCun (skeptical about AGI’s feasibility).
9. How might AGI impact society?
AGI could revolutionize industries, automate labor, and lead to scientific breakthroughs, but also pose ethical and safety risks.
10. Will AGI be safe for humanity?
Ensuring AGI aligns with human values and remains under control is a major focus of AI research and policy discussions.